Railways are critical and punctuality is a priority

Railways are an integral part of Sydney’s transport network. On a typical weekday, trains deliver 44 per cent of employees in the North Sydney-Sydney CBD-Redfern area to their jobs. About 120,000 people exit the stations that serve this area between 8 am to 9 am, the height of the morning peak.

In 2015–16, there were approximately 360 million passenger journeys on suburban and intercity trains. The train network improves mobility, accessibility and connectivity for residents.

A NSW Government priority is to ‘maintain or improve reliability of public transport services over the next four years’. Maintaining punctuality of passenger rail services is a key element in providing a reliable transport service.  

Patronage growth is a challenge for maintaining punctuality

The level of patronage is a critical factor in the ability to maintain punctuality. Increasing patronage can lead to overcrowding, increasing the time it takes passengers to get off and on the train. If this time exceeds the waiting time allowed for in the timetable, delays will start to occur.  

The NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan forecasts that rail patronage could increase by 26 per cent between 2012 and 2031.

Transport for NSW procures rail services from Sydney Trains and NSW Trains

The Passenger Transport Act 2014 provides that contracts are required for the procurement of passenger transport services. The Transport Administration Act 1988 sets out the functions of, and relationships between, transport agencies.

Transport for NSW, under a purchaser-provider model, enters into contracts with service providers. It has entered into separate contracts (Rail Services Contract) with Sydney Trains and NSW Trains to procure passenger rail services. Transport for NSW sets performance targets and service standards for these transport services. Other key functions of Transport for NSW are planning for the future, timetabling of transport services and procurement of transport infrastructure including rolling stock (train carriages).  

Sydney Trains provides railway passenger services in the Sydney Metropolitan Area. Its services extend to Cronulla, Waterfall, Macarthur, Leppington, Emu Plains, Richmond, Berowra and Bondi Junction and are referred to as ‘suburban services’. In addition, Sydney Trains manages and maintains rail infrastructure in the area bounded by Bomaderry (South Coast), Macarthur, Lithgow (Blue Mountains), Richmond and Islington Junction (Newcastle).

NSW Trains provides railway passenger services that commence or terminate outside the Sydney Metropolitan Area. This includes the ‘intercity services’ that operate between Central station and the South Coast, Southern Highlands, Blue Mountains and Central Coast and Newcastle.

Putting the customer at the centre of everything is also a priority

In November 2011, when announcing the establishment of Transport for NSW, the then Minister for Transport stated that ‘the customer will be at the centre of everything we do’.

The first objective of the:

•  Transport Administration Act 1988 is ‘to put the customer first and design the transport system around the needs and expectations of the customer’
•  Passenger Transport Act 2014 is ‘to facilitate the delivery of safe, reliable, efficient and integrated public passenger services that are responsive to customer needs’.

What is this audit about?

This audit assessed whether rail agencies have plans and strategies to maintain or improve performance in getting the growing number of rail passengers to their destinations on time. In particular, it considered whether rail agencies have:

• reliable information on performance in getting rail passengers to their destinations on time, and are taking or planning remedial action to address any performance shortcomings
• developed plans and strategies to get the predicted increased number of rail passengers to their destinations on time in future
• plans to improve communication to assist passengers get to their destinations on time.

The audit focussed on suburban services operated by Sydney Trains and intercity services operated by NSW Trains. It looked at punctuality from the perspectives of both train operations and customers.

The agencies’ responses to the audit report are at Appendix 1. Further information on the audit scope and criteria is at Appendix 2.

A better practice indicator of train punctuality is in place

On 1 July 2013, NSW passenger rail agencies moved from an ‘on-time-running’ indicator to a train ‘punctuality’ indicator. The punctuality indicator is better than the previous on-time-running indicator for several reasons, and better than that used in most other rail systems.

A train is ‘punctual’ if it:

• stopped at all the stations at which it was listed to stop in the timetable
• arrived at its destination no later than its arrival time as listed in the timetable plus an on-time tolerance.

The on-time tolerance is five minutes for suburban and six minutes for intercity services.

Train operators occasionally direct a train driver to skip a station to make up lost time. Prior to 1 July 2013, a train that skipped a station, or stations, could still be classified as ‘on-time’ if it reached its destination within the on-time tolerance.  

Punctuality results are not adjusted for events beyond the control of the train operator such as significant weather events and police operations. On-time-running results were adjusted for such events. Punctuality results more closely reflect the actual customer experience.  

Peak punctuality is measured for a longer period each week day than was on-time-running. The morning peak period is now 6 am to 10 am (formerly 6 am to 9 am) and the afternoon peak is now 3 pm to 7 pm (formerly 4 pm to 6 pm). These better align with observed customer travel patterns and are consistent with a 2005 recommendation of the Auditor-General.

A customer punctuality indicator is in place, which is leading practice

The two Rail Services Contracts include a Customer Delay Measure. Some form of customer delay measure is leading practice and is even more representative of the customer experience than the current punctuality indicator.

The Customer Delay Measure estimates the difference between the expected and actual time of arrival at each customer’s destination station and calculates an average delay from this. It:

• takes into account all the customer inconveniences that can occur during daily train operations (such as early and late trains, trains out of timetable order, skipped stops, cancellations)
• recognises that a passenger can reach their destination close to time despite trains running late and out of timetable order
• aligns with Transport for NSWs’ customer value proposition research which found customers’ highest priorities were train frequency, keeping to schedules and total travel time
• is a customer outcome measure and, as such, can be used to inform transport policy
• could be measured for other modes of transport allowing legitimate between mode comparisons.

The London Underground has customer measures called Excess Journey Time and Lost Customer Hours which are similar to the Customer Delay Measure. Very few other rail operators publish customer outcome measures. Independent transport commentators have expressed disappointment about the domination of on-time-running over customer outcome measures.  

A customer outcome indicator of punctuality was recommended by the Independent Transport Safety and Reliability Regulator in 2004 and the Auditor-General in 2005.

Train Punctuality and the Customer Delay Measure provide different perspectives which are both important for decision making and planning.

Increasing emphasis on measuring and managing customer punctuality

Transport for NSW, Sydney Trains and NSW Trains are each giving increasing emphasis to measuring and managing for customer outcomes. This is a positive development towards the priority of ‘putting the customer at the centre of everything they do’.

The train punctuality indicator is clearly still the primary indicator for NSWs’ rail agencies. Indicators of train punctuality have been used and reported by most railway operators for decades. Indicators of customer punctuality are rare, a very recent innovation and do not have the profile of train punctuality. Technology and information is becoming available for better estimating and communicating customer delay in real time. 

We noted that:

• Transport for NSW is undertaking development work on further refining the Customer Delay Measure
•  the rail agencies are jointly examining other potential indicators of customer delay to better inform planning and allocation of resources
• NSW Trains has incorporated the Customer Delay Measure outcomes into its weekly management reviews of operational performance.

Excess wait time may replace punctuality as we move to ‘turn up and go’ services

As train frequencies increase in response to future demand, rail agencies will need to consider an alternative to the current measure of train punctuality. As ‘turn up and go’ services replace timetabled services, adherence to timetable (i.e. train punctuality) becomes redundant and unexpected/excess wait time becomes more relevant.  

The Transport and Infrastructure Council has reported that the part of the journey least appealing to customers is waiting for a train longer than expected. A customer wait time measure is:

• highly recommended by transport researchers
• supported by Transport for NSWs’ customer value proposition research
• in use by some operators (for example, Transport for London with respect to their bus network).

Reported train punctuality is a reasonable estimate of actual punctuality

Train punctuality is measured by comparing the location of a train to its timetabled location. The system used to measure punctuality is primarily in place for safe train management.  

The current method involves some estimation, as measurement points (typically a track circuit) are rarely located at destination stations. This is illustrated in Exhibit 2.

The estimation approach currently used is satisfactory. Repeated observations by fieldworkers with stopwatches are used to calculate an ‘adjustment factor’ for each station platform at which trains terminate.

Train punctuality results could be reported publicly in more detail

Train punctuality for suburban and intercity trains is reported on the Sydney Trains website but not to the detail of the key performance indicators in the contracts between Transport for NSW and Sydney Trains and NSW Trains.  
The punctuality of suburban and intercity services in the morning and afternoon peak periods is published on the Sydney Trains website. The level of reporting is reasonable.

The Rail Services Contracts require Sydney Trains and NSW Trains to provide further and more detailed punctuality results to Transport for NSW than reported publicly. For example:

• punctuality at non-Sydney central business district business centres (Chatswood, Liverpool, Parramatta and Penrith) is reported to Transport for NSW but not published
• separate morning peak and afternoon peak monthly punctuality results are reported to Transport for NSW but these are combined into a single ‘peak’ result when published.

Public reporting of customer delay results is very limited

No reference to the Customer Delay Measure is on any agency website apart from a single figure, representing average customer delay for intercity services across a financial year, in the NSW Trains annual reports.

The Customer Delay Measure is relatively new compared to train punctuality measures. Arguably it has been appropriate to give it a lower reporting profile while:

• staff and stakeholders developed an understanding of its definition, benefits, uses and the insights that it provides beyond the train punctuality indicator
• technology and information improved to the point where real time measurement and reporting was practical.

Train punctuality has been good since 2005

While train punctuality is measured for all timetabled trains, the Rail Services Contract target of 92 per cent applies to trains arriving at Central station in the morning peak (6 am to 10 am) and departing from Central station in the afternoon peak (3 pm to 7 pm) on Mondays to Fridays (excluding public holidays). This is also the basis for publicly reported punctuality results.

Overall, punctuality has generally exceeded 92 per cent since the introduction of a new, but slower, timetable in September 2005 in the aftermath of the Waterfall rail accident in January 2003.

Exhibit 3 shows the trend in train punctuality since July 2002. The impact on punctuality of the Waterfall rail accident is clearly evident and the decline in punctuality at that time was primarily due to train drivers operating at slower speeds than required by the timetable.

Some suburban lines and services perform relatively poorly

The punctuality of Western line and Northern via Strathfield line trains departing Central station between 5.15 pm and 6 pm was relatively poor. During these times of the day the average punctuality of trains on these two lines ranged from 58 per cent to 89 per cent across the period we analysed. The agencies demonstrated that the delays resulted largely from challenges in maintaining the punctuality of North Shore trains operating at a frequency of 20 trains per hour. The late running Western and Northern via Strathfield lines trains are the continuation of services that arrived at Central station from the North Shore line.  

The punctuality of East Hills line trains during the afternoon peak was relatively poor during the period. We looked at the 14 peak services (six in the morning peak and eight in the afternoon peak) that operate via Sydenham and Revesby. The eight afternoon peak services had an average punctuality of 85.8 per cent. These services are, together with one Southern Highlands’ service that had punctuality of 50.3 per cent, the only services using the extra tracks constructed between Kingsgrove and Revesby in 2013. This major infrastructure project was designed to allow more express trains to operate between the Campbelltown area and the city while maintaining punctuality.

Intercity trains perform relatively poorly during the inter-peak and afternoon peak

For close to four years starting mid-2011, the punctuality of intercity trains kept deteriorating relative to the punctuality of suburban trains. Exhibit 4 presents monthly punctuality data for suburban trains and intercity trains from July 2009 to July 2016.

Some, but not all, punctuality problem areas being addressed

The rail agencies showed they had a reasonable understanding of the causes of the Western line and Northern via Strathfield line delays and were implementing strategies to address these up to 2019. These will be discussed later in this report.

Transport for NSW advises that recent modelling suggests the relatively poor performance of the express East Hills line trains in the afternoon was related to the train timetable and signalling which restricts how close trains can run behind each other into Campbelltown. It further advises that this will be corrected over the next three years.  

The rail agencies were not able to provide evidence-based explanations for the inability of intercity train punctuality to recover between the morning and afternoon peaks and the relative deterioration in intercity punctuality between mid-2011 and mid-2015.

A key factor in the relatively poor performance of NSW Trains’ intercity service may be the old age of its trains and of the tracks and signals outside the metropolitan area. Transport for NSW acknowledged that recent investment in the NSW Trains intercity fleet and track and signal infrastructure had been relatively lower than investment in suburban trains and the suburban network. Transport for NSW also advised that the recently announced New Intercity Fleet will address some of this relative under-investment.

NSW Trains’ ability to improve intercity train punctuality is constrained

Intercity trains are operated by NSW Trains. NSW Trains manages train crew on intercity services and station staff at intercity stations.  

NSW Trains’ analysis for the period from 1 July 2015 to 31 March 2016 attributed 72 per cent of their train lateness to other agencies and infrastructure and fleet failures.

Sydney Trains maintains the intercity fleet, maintains the track and signal infrastructure, responds to events that delay trains, and manages the movement of intercity trains from origin to destination. These functions can all impact on punctuality. Since 2013, there has been a contract for services between Sydney Trains and NSW Trains covering fleet maintenance, amongst other things. The contract includes a fleet reliability performance indicator but, at the time of the audit, the two parties had not yet agreed how this would be measured.  

There is also no agreement or indicators to cover the priority to be given to NSW Trains by the Sydney Trains’ Rail Management Centre when there is a delay or minor service interruption. NSW Trains advised that it is seeking to better define the priorities the Rail Management Centre gives NSW Trains’ services compared to Sydney Trains’ and freight rail services. Rail Management Centre management advised that the absence of an agreement or indicators does not affect the priority assigned to suburban and intercity trains. For extensive delays and major interruptions, there are agreed Alternate Customer Journey Plans to guide the Rail Management Centre’s staff.

Transport for NSW advises that the three rail agencies are now working collaboratively to make improvements to the key indicators in the contracts. 

Patronage increases are creating challenges 

Despite the overall good train punctuality performance noted in the previous chapter, it is becoming harder for rail agencies to maintain a high level of punctuality. Options for managing patronage growth are declining. It is not possible to run more trains on parts of the network due to signalling system limitations. Punctuality cannot be maintained consistently when trains are operating at maximum frequency. Timetables are being used to move passengers to less crowded trains at a cost to their convenience.  

Transport for NSW forecast that morning peak rail patronage would increase at an annual compound rate of growth of approximately 3.3 per cent from 2011 until 2026. This is much higher than past long term annual growth rates of around 1.2 per cent.

Between 2011 and 2016 the number of passengers travelling into the city grew by 4.3 per cent each year on average, including an annual growth rate of 6.6 per cent since May 2014.  

By August 2016, nearly 14,500 more rail passengers were travelling into the city in the morning peak period than forecast in 2011 (including an additional 6,800 in the busiest one hour). See Exhibit 5.

This is equivalent to almost six trains, each with a passenger load factor (that is, the ratio of passengers on a train to the number of seats on the train expressed as a percentage) of 130 per cent. The number of passengers travelling in the busiest one hour is forecast to further increase by about 3,500 to 4,000 per year, which is equivalent to three or four trains each with a passenger load factor of 130 per cent.  

In effect, growth is two years ahead of forecast.

Overcrowded trains are already compromising punctuality

At present, 119 trains arrive at Central station during the busiest hour in the morning. The March 2016 survey of train loads measured 52 of these as being overcrowded. In the half hour before and after the busiest hour another 12 trains were overcrowded.  

When a train’s passenger load factor exceeds approximately 130 per cent it can become difficult for the train to adhere to the timetable. The primary reason is that the time taken for passengers to alight from and board a crowded train can exceed the station dwell time allocated in the timetable. Exhibit 6 shows that punctuality decreases as the number of overcrowded trains increases.

Rail agencies responding to the challenge

A range of factors influence punctuality including train breakdowns, security and trespass, track infrastructure failures and sick passengers. Projected patronage increases, which can lead to overcrowding and trains having to wait longer at stations, present a particularly significant challenge to maintaining punctuality into the future.

The rail agencies understand the challenge presented by patronage growth over the next few years. In response to the challenge a range of initiatives are being implemented.

Operational Capacity Program 

Sydney Trains is undertaking an in-depth study of human factors with initial work focussed on the T1 Line (North Shore, Northern and Western lines). The purpose is to assess whether network capacity (as measured by trains per hour) can be increased without augmenting existing infrastructure. Some of the factors being examined include variability in train driver behaviours, appropriateness of placement of track-side signage, driver training and station staff management of train dwell times. The desired outcome is to make behaviours consistently best practice to make best use of existing network capacity.

The Rail Operations Centre

The new Rail Operations Centre at Green Square is due to open in 2018 at a cost of $276 million. The Rail Operations Centre will introduce new technologies that will improve punctuality through better management of incidents that delay trains. A by-product is that customers will be better informed of how service disruptions are being managed so they will be able to make decisions about alternative travel plans that better meet their needs.

The Rail Operations Centre’s Incident Management System is expected to deliver a superior ability to manage incidents that delay trains. This means that when an event occurs that delays trains, response and recovery times should be shorter.

The Rail Operations Centre will introduce a Day of Operations Timetable System. When an event occurs that disrupts the planned timetable the Day of Operations Timetable System will automatically develop an interim timetable for the disrupted services and the changes will be quickly communicated to train crew and station staff.

A Customer Information Management System is also planned so that when train services are disrupted precise and detailed information about timetable changes will be quickly communicated to staff and customers.The Rail Operations Centre can be truly transformational if the Day of Operations Timetable System’s re-planning, and therefore real-time operational decision-making, focuses on minimising customer delay. This would be a significant step toward embedding the customer-centric service delivery culture to which the executive of all the rail agencies is committed. Whilst the project is still underway, staff are examining how best to make decision making during disruptions more customer-centric.

Upcoming timetables

New timetables are being developed to allow a smooth transition up to the 2019 completion of the Sydney Metro Northwest to Chatswood. These timetables should:

• add additional services in the busiest one hour, increasing the number of passengers that can be accommodated
• provide more services and cater for more passengers at times outside the peaks.

Also, the timetables are likely to use demand management to obtain more efficient use of available network capacity. For example, changed stopping patterns are likely to ‘move’ some passengers from overcrowded trains to slower but less crowded trains. Passengers generally do not like slower journey times. There are some risks as well. The timetables are likely to result in extended periods of trains operating at 20 per hour. Earlier we demonstrated that punctuality is hard to maintain at this frequency with current infrastructure.  

Enabling projects for upcoming timetables

The rail agencies recognise that a higher level of operational efficiency and effectiveness is needed to support the upcoming timetables. Some of the key projects designed to achieve this are:

• Hornsby Junction remodelling, to allow efficient handling of the increase in train movements
• North Shore line resignalling, to increase the service reliability at 20 trains per hour
• power supply upgrades, to cope with more frequent services
• station upgrades, to alleviate platform crowding
• Sydney and Strathfield Signal Box Automation, to allow additional train movements
• Parramatta Turnback, to allow some services to start/finish trips at Parramatta.

Initiatives should allow punctuality targets to be met

The precise impact of the various initiatives and activities on punctuality is unknown until the activities take effect. On the basis that patronage increases as forecast, the probability is reasonably high that train punctuality can be maintained at the 92 per cent target up to and including joining the Sydney Metro Northwest to the network in 2019.  

The various initiatives under the Operational Capacity Program and the timetable enabling projects together with the commencement of the Rail Operations Centre all have the capability of improving punctuality. The initiatives and projects are being managed by experienced and knowledgeable officers, and appropriate governance and assurance frameworks are in place. For example:

• Sydney Trains has established a project coordination office, transferred its director of operations to head it, and seconded other senior and experienced staff to run each project under him
• Infrastructure NSW has conducted a gateway review of the activities associated with future timetables
• Sydney Trains is using Primavera (an industry-standard project management tool) to monitor progress and project interactions in preparation for the integration of Sydney Metro Northwest.

In 2015–16, punctuality was at 94.2 per cent, above target by 2.2 percentage points. This provides some leeway before performance falls below the 92 per cent target.

Improving data should help communication with customers

A significant change in recent years has been customer access to information via smart phones, and the availability of smartphone applications (apps). These apps are provided by private developers, but are based on information on planned and real-time train movements provided to these developers by Sydney Trains.

The Rail Operations Centre’s improvements to data quality and timeliness should flow through to the quality and timeliness of information available to customers through apps. In addition, some of the more modern trains operating on the suburban network capture information that can be used to estimate the number of passengers on board. Presently, this information is stored on the train and can only be downloaded manually. Sydney Trains is looking at ways in which this passenger load data can be captured centrally so it can be provided to app developers.

Knowing actual passenger loads should help passengers plan their trips and, in some cases, avoid overcrowded trains. It is possible that distributing this information could result in a more uniform distribution of passenger loads on trains.

Getting more passengers travelling outside busiest time would help

The rapidly diminishing number of train paths through and into the city during the 8 am to 9 am period was discussed earlier. However, there remains spare train paths and space for passengers in the remainder of the peak period (see Exhibit 12). Utilisation of this spare capacity requires encouraging passengers to change travel patterns and travel outside the 8 am to 9 am period.

Achieving this change in travel patterns is not straightforward because, despite the crowding on trains in this period, about 45 to 50 per cent of peak period train passengers arrive in the city between 8 am and 9 am. In the past, the rail agencies have trialled initiatives to encourage changes in travel patterns with limited success. Nevertheless, it could be worthwhile to again look at this issue, particularly given the increasing flexibility in work practices available to many city workers.

Significant increase in capacity to run more trains is needed beyond 2019

Patronage growth forecast beyond 2019 cannot be accommodated for long without either a decline in punctuality or a significant increase in the capacity of the existing heavy rail network to run more trains per hour in peak periods. Unless something more is done than described in the previous section, the average number of passengers per train will increase passenger load factors beyond 130 per cent on more trains. The more trains are overcrowded, the greater the effect on punctuality.

There will be little scope to manage passenger growth beyond 2019 through the timetable. It is likely that, by then, the timetable will have exhausted most options for dealing with increased patronage within the limitations of network infrastructure.

There will be some relief in 2024 with the completion of the Sydney Metro City and Southwest. This will reduce the loads on trains from the North Shore. Most passengers on Sydney Metro Northwest will no longer need to interchange at Chatswood and train paths previously utilised by trains from the Bankstown line will become available to the Airport, Inner West and South lines.

Options for a substantial increase in network capacity are being developed

Transport for NSW has recognised the need to substantially increase the capacity of the heavy rail network in the period from 2019 to 2024 to prevent a decline in punctuality. It has established a Rail Services Delivery Office and undertaken substantial work on strategies to address the predicted patronage growth in collaboration with Sydney Trains and NSW Trains.

One option to increase the number of trains that can fit on existing tracks is the Advanced Train Control System. Such a system allows trains to run closer together safely. Technologies similar to the Advanced Train Control System with modern on-board signalling have been implemented successfully elsewhere achieving increases of up to 40 per cent in the maximum number of trains that can run per hour. Transport for NSW recently decided it would replace the current trackside signalling system with the Advanced Train Control System across the network over time. Technical support for the old trackside system is being discontinued, spare parts will become unavailable in time, and the whole-of-life cost of the Advanced Train Control System will be much lower. The timing of the change has not been determined although it is likely to commence no sooner than 2020–21.

There will be other implications arising from increasing train frequency, including:

• more train carriages and engines will be needed
• incident recovery times will need to be faster (although the Rail Operations Centre should help)
• track and fleet reliability will need to improve, so maintenance plans will need to be reviewed
• station capacities will need to increase to cope with more passenger throughput, particularly in the Sydney central business district.

A costed plan has yet to be put to government

While options to address patronage growth beyond 2019 have been developed, Transport for NSW is yet to put a costed plan to the government. Its aim is to put a costed plan to the government by the third quarter of this calendar year (2017). The likely scale of investment needed would require Cabinet approval.
Any significant infrastructure project on the rail network requires a substantial lead time, so the absence of an agreed and funded plan creates a high risk of overcrowding and a decline in punctuality between 2019 and 2024.

Unless the capacity of the heavy rail network increases substantially and broadly in line with patronage increases, punctuality is likely to decline and customer satisfaction is likely to fall. This would be unfortunate given that the strong customer focus within the transport portfolio in recent years has resulted in customer satisfaction rates of around 90 per cent. Research shows that customer satisfaction is highly dependent on punctuality and consistency in performance.

Patronage growth above forecast would mean punctuality problems arise sooner

The assessment that major punctuality issues may start to occur soon after 2019 is based on the forecast levels of patronage growth. If patronage growth is more than forecast, the rail agencies may find it difficult to meet the 92 per cent target before then.

Recently, patronage growth has been well above forecast. Between May 2011 and May 2016, the number of people exiting the rail network at city stations in the morning peak grew by 23.3 per cent compared to a forecast increase of approximately 15.9 per cent. Almost two-thirds of this growth occurred in the past two years.
Train loads surveys show that between March 2015 and March 2016 patronage grew by 6.5 per cent in the busiest hour compared with a forecast average annual growth of 3.3 per cent.

If the current forecast is accurate there will be 14,000 extra patrons in the busiest hour by 2019, roughly equivalent to the expected increase in the number of passengers that can be accommodated. If the recent patronage trend continues, the extra patronage will be 20,000 by 2019, well above the number of passengers that could be accommodated.

Perhaps more critical for punctuality is the number and proportion of services with a passenger load exceeding 130 per cent during the busiest hour. The March 2016 train load survey observed 44 per cent of services during this hour exceeded 130 per cent. We estimate that by 2019:

• 49 per cent will exceed 130 per cent based on forecast patronage growth
• 56 per cent will exceed 130 per cent if recent patronage growth is maintained.

Rail agencies need to have a better understanding of current patronage growth and drivers, particularly during peak periods. We identified some missing information in train load survey data which raised doubts about its accuracy and usefulness for such purposes. We also noted that part of the growth in the last year may be induced by the Opal card fare policy, which has been changed recently. Transport for NSW advises that it recently discontinued train load surveys and is implementing improvements to its data collection and analysis methods.

Opportunity to better integrate transport and land use planning to manage demand

Transport for NSW and the Greater Sydney Commission are working collaboratively to better link transport and land use planning, with an aim being for population growth to occur where it can be best accommodated by the transport system.

In January 2017, a joint project team was established in Parramatta for this purpose. The project director reports to both Transport for NSW and the Greater Sydney Commission.

The key deliverable will be a Future Transport Strategy to meet the demands of predicted population growth in NSW. It will be a 40 year strategy focusing on the technological, economic and social changes ahead and is due to be released in late 2017.